Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 8.842202 10.159368 11.578760 13.218739 15.057938 17.053439 19.378816
2025-12-21 6.510318 8.202770 10.172354 12.620742 15.568588 18.988542 23.240554
2025-12-28 5.695140 7.606076 9.939433 12.973404 16.786383 21.389717 27.334346
2026-01-04 5.010946 7.057105 9.666556 13.198511 17.808512 23.570743 31.259722
2026-01-11 4.370241 6.456208 9.221872 13.100600 18.333668 25.074498 34.325938
2026-01-18 3.836779 5.927707 8.802046 12.967244 18.759156 26.425613 37.216403
2026-01-25 3.438817 5.537271 8.519348 12.971207 19.332679 27.960489 40.379817
2026-02-01 3.130994 5.240601 8.332578 13.076984 20.027612 29.665238 43.821900
2026-02-08 2.816109 4.896693 8.039770 12.992927 20.425863 30.952797 46.716713
2026-02-15 2.534933 4.574208 7.746303 12.874736 20.748883 32.126403 49.475992
2026-02-22 2.332562 4.357137 7.593011 12.949347 21.347489 33.705353 52.861852
2026-03-01 2.211963 4.263595 7.624079 13.305564 22.381416 35.954150 57.301058
2026-03-08 1.992620 3.981790 7.332513 13.135122 22.601804 37.018116 60.061867
2026-03-15 1.725417 3.586532 6.818533 12.562487 22.147570 37.029127 61.228603
2026-03-22 1.642011 3.519052 6.856141 12.905664 23.175595 39.355351 66.008412
2026-03-29 1.547329 3.420082 6.829072 13.132668 24.018269 41.417997 70.448557
2026-04-05 1.413950 3.231385 6.624819 13.034147 24.305304 42.599551 73.535895
2026-04-12 1.289289 3.046517 6.411510 12.901749 24.520848 43.664664 76.464660
2026-04-19 1.193922 2.911631 6.280082 12.905563 24.965385 45.112950 80.052366
2026-04-26 1.119043 2.812118 6.207753 13.010921 25.588053 46.873205 84.201811
2026-05-03 1.029462 2.670732 6.041611 12.927218 25.865198 48.057673 87.433139
2026-05-10 0.944456 2.530023 5.864901 12.809554 26.070097 49.119747 90.486614
2026-05-17 0.885676 2.443118 5.790507 12.883834 26.625839 50.798317 94.626143